I don't know. Call me a dreamer or whatever, but don't you think that, at least on their website biography they'd mention splitting up. This all has a 'Clannad' tone to it - the whole we've not split up.
I doubt the Cranberries have! It's been over 10 years since Clannad released a studio album and they still say they're together, and finally we heard of new writing sessions from the band. No doubt it's just a breather they need from each other, just like good friends do all the time!